The Twins and Padres have both been fairly quiet this winter but could be ramping up to make some moves before the season starts. Per reporting from , the club have discu sed trade scenarios involving catcher but the Twins are also among the clubs that have interested in San Diego right-hander . Thats not to suggest that a one-for-one swap of Vzquez for Cease is at all feasible. Vzquez is going to make $10MM this year, making him a bit overpaid as a part-time, glove-first catcher. Cease, on the other hand, is an excellent starting pitcher who is going to make $13.75MM this year. That gives him tremendous surplus value. That the Twins would be interested in Cease is not surprising as just about any club would be, since hes been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past four years. From 2021 to 2024, he has made at least 32 starts in each of those seasons. His 716 innings thrown in that time is seventh in the majors behind only , , , , and . That quantity has also come with quality, as Cease has allowed 3.52 earned runs per nine while striking out 29.7% of batters faced. His 9.7% walk rate was on the high side but not by much. His 17.2 wins above replacement in that time is sixth in the majors, behind the five the aforementioned pitchers but ahead of Berros. The best free agent pitchers generally get over $30MM annually, with and both getting over that line this year. Even older pitchers coming off injury-marred seasons like Buck Williams Jersey and will outearn Cease this year, with each getting a $15MM salary for 2025. All those factors make him very valuable to the Padres but they might be boxed into a corner where they have to consider making him available. projects them for a $208MM payroll this year, which is well beyond last years $169MM figure. They can reportedly push a little higher than their 2024 number but not by too much, so cutting some decent money seems to be nece sary. They will have to do that while also filling holes in left field and behind the plate, as well as the rotation. There arent many great options for clearing money. , , , and all have no-trade clauses on their contracts. only has an eight-team no-trade clause but his deal is tough to move regardle s since his production dropped off after he signed that deal and there is still $71MM to be paid out over the next six years. only has three years left on his deal but the opt-out/player option a year from now complicates trade talks. All that leaves and Cease as the best trade options. Each is going into his final arbitration season and set to make an eight-figure salary. However, Arrez may not have tremendous trade value, despite his elite batting averages. Hes not a good defender, baserunner or power threat, limiting his overall production. It all leaves the Padres and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller with a tricky tightrope to walk. Cease is probably their best option for doing a trade somewhat resembling the deal from last offseason. In that deal, the Padres took one great player and his notable salary, trading him and to the Yankees for a five-player package. One of those players was , who bolstered their rotation. Another was prospect , whom the Padres used to get Cease. The additions of , and also bolstered the catching and pitching depth. Flipping Cease to help in several areas might be the best option for the Friars now but it would also likely weaken the rotation that already looks like a soft spot. With Musgrove set to mi s the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the rotation currently consists of King, Cease, Darvish and question marks. Guys like Vsquez, Brito, and are potential back-end guys but its not a strong overall group. That would be even more true without Cease. The Twins have their own financial concerns but could perhaps make it work with Cease. Recent reporting has suggested that the Twins dont really need to cut payroll but dont have much room to add at the moment either. Trading part of the $10MM owed to Vzquez would help, as could moving the $7.5MM owed to or the $6.4MM for . The Twins currently project to have a rotation consisting of , , , and Paddack. Swapping in Cease for Paddack would obviously be an upgrade, considering Paddack hasnt pitched much over the past few years due to elbow i sues, including Tommy John surgery, and has had middling results when on the hill. The Twins also have some young and affordable pitching that would surely interest the Padres. Pitchers like and debuted in 2024 without much succe s but both were notable prospects last year and could still have plenty of succe s ahead of them. The fact that each still has six years of cheap control available would be great for the Padres, but the Twins would have to think about whether thats a fair price for just one year of a pitcher like Cease. The Twins also have arms like , and in their depth mix. As recently explored by , the Padres might look to last winters Burnes trade as a decent comparable for Cease. The Brewers flipped one year of Burnes for two notable prospects in and . Both were top 100-type prospects that had cracked the majors but hadnt been established yet. That is perhaps the kind of return that could work for the Padres. Subtracting Cease for pitchers like Matthews/Festa would lower their rotation certainty but give them more options at cheaper prices. The Twins may not be keen on such an arrangement, however, as the report from The Athletic indicates that they would prefer to provide a value-laden package to replenish the Padres depth as opposed to the higher-upside talent Preller likes to hunt. Though Preller has been exceptionally quiet this winter, its po sible that its time for him to pounce. The Padres were one of the finalists for and he would have been a ma sive help for their current predicament. As a plug-and-play ace who will be making the minimum salary this year, he would have been a great fit for the club both in terms of roster construction and their financial situation. Perhaps Preller was waiting for clarity on that ma sive decision from Sasaki. Now that the young righty has officially signed with the Dodgers, Preller has to pivot to other options. Given his constraints, a Cease trade might have to be on his to-do list. If so, the Twins are surely not the only club interested, so Preller should be fielding plenty of calls. Joe Harris Jersey
